Solar Could Supply 18.1% Of Electricity By 2035 Under BAAJA Analysis
The Solar Energy Industries Association has published a new analysis of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026, outlining projected solar capacity, generation, emissions and public health outcomes through 2035.
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CTJ Desk
Published •11 min read
The Solar Energy Industries Association has published a new analysis of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026, or BAAJA, outlining how the measure would affect solar deployment and the electricity sector through 2035. The document compares BAAJA with current law and presents four headline findings: more solar capacity additions, a higher solar share of generation, lower cumulative power-sector carbon dioxide emissions, and avoided public health damages linked to lower air pollution.
The analysis was published on November 2 on SEIA's BAAJA impact analysis page, where the association also provides a one-pager and a report.
SEIA Published A BAAJA Analysis Covering Capacity, Generation, Emissions And Health
According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the analysis examines BAAJA's effect on four parts of the electricity sector: solar capacity, solar generation, power-sector emissions and public health outcomes. The association says the legislation could accelerate solar deployment, reduce reliance on new natural gas capacity and lower air pollution.
The published summary presents the comparison against current law rather than against a past year. It focuses on the period from 2028 to 2035 for capacity additions and extends the generation and emissions outlook through 2035.
A capacity figure expressed in GWac refers to generating capacity on an alternating-current basis. Generation share, by contrast, describes the portion of total electricity production supplied by a resource.
Metric In SEIA's Analysis | Value | Timeframe Or Endpoint |
|---|---|---|
More net solar capacity additions under BAAJA | 167 GWac | 2028-2035 |
Solar share of electricity generation | 18.1% | By 2035 |
Reduction in cumulative power-sector CO2 emissions | Approximately 20% | Through 2035 |
Avoided public health damages | $54 billion | Cumulative estimate |
The Analysis Projects 167 GWac More Net Solar Additions From 2028 To 2035
The largest single capacity figure in the summary is SEIA's estimate that BAAJA would enable 167 GWac more net solar capacity additions between 2028 and 2035 than would occur under current law. That figure is presented as the difference between the BAAJA case and the current-law case.
SEIA describes that increase as part of a broader acceleration in solar deployment. The source summary does not break the 167 GWac figure into annual additions or provide state-by-state numbers, but it does make clear that the modeled effect is cumulative across the 2028-2035 period.
The association also says the legislation would reduce reliance on new natural gas capacity. The source summary does not assign a numerical value to that change, but it includes it as one of the modeled electricity-sector outcomes.
Solar Reaches 18.1% Of Electricity Generation By 2035 In SEIA's Model
On the generation side, SEIA says BAAJA would raise solar's share of electricity generation to 18.1% by 2035. That figure describes solar's portion of the electricity mix at the end of the outlook period used in the summary.
The source summary does not provide a current-law solar share for 2035, nor does it show a year-by-year generation pathway. What it does provide is the endpoint: under the analysis, solar would account for 18.1% of electricity generation by 2035 if BAAJA were in place.
Because the summary presents capacity and generation together, it links the additional solar buildout with a higher share of electricity produced from solar resources over time.
Cumulative Power-Sector CO2 Falls About 20% And Avoided Health Damages Reach $54 Billion
SEIA's analysis also estimates environmental and health outcomes. According to the association, BAAJA would cut cumulative power-sector CO2 emissions by approximately 20% compared with current law.
The summary pairs that emissions result with an air-pollution-related public health estimate. SEIA says the legislation would deliver an estimated $54 billion in avoided public health damages. In the published description, that estimate is tied to reduced air pollution.
The source does not break out which pollutants are included in the health calculation or provide annual damage estimates. Instead, it presents the $54 billion total as a cumulative modeled benefit associated with lower pollution in the power sector.
SEIA Made A One-Pager And Full Report Available With The Published Summary
Alongside the web summary, SEIA says readers can download a one-pager covering how BAAJA affects solar deployment, power-sector emissions and public health benefits. The page also indicates that a full report is available.
Those materials are the next items identified by the organization in connection with the publication. The web page does not list an implementation timetable, agency process or additional milestones beyond the release of the analysis materials themselves.
Taken together, the published summary sets out four core figures tied to BAAJA's modeled electricity-sector effects through 2035: 167 GWac of additional net solar capacity additions from 2028 to 2035, an 18.1% solar generation share by 2035, an approximately 20% reduction in cumulative power-sector CO2 emissions, and $54 billion in avoided public health damages.
